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USA Are Not Favorites to Win Most Golds at Winter Olympics—Who Is?

January 31, 2026 5 min read views
USA Are Not Favorites to Win Most Golds at Winter Olympics—Who Is?
Tyler ErzbergerBy Tyler ErzbergerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project member

We are a little under a week away from the Winter Olympic Games starting in Milan, Italy, and thousands of athletes from across the globe are touching down in Europe in preparation for the opening ceremonies and their respective events.

While the United States brings one of its deepest teams ever across the board in almost every discipline, unlike the Summer Olympics, it is not favored to leave Italy with the most gold medals.

The USA squeaked by China to take the tiebreaker over their main rival in the Summer Games, with both countries winning 40 in Paris two years ago. But many pundits gave the Americans the win due to their superior total medal count and more runner-up finishes with silver.

That isn't projected to be anywhere near the case in Milan.

More news: Major Issue Threatens to Shake Up Figure Skating at Winter Olympics: Report

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More news: USA Figure Skater Ilia Malinin Says He ‘Broke Physics’ for Milano Olympics

On Kalshi, the prediction website, Norway has a 69% chance of winning the most medals overall at the Olympics. And when it comes to gold, they hold a strong 61% chance of beating the United States and Germany for second and third, respectively.

Norway is expected to rule the skiing events at the Olympics, with heavy favorites in almost every discipline across the 17-day event. When it comes to cross-country skiing, the Norwegians are unmatched, bringing a slew of the world's strongest to Milan for the upcoming competitions.

For the United States, they'll look to be the aces in figure skating, headlined by superstar Ilia Malinin, one of the biggest favorites to win gold among athletes at the Olympics.

Although it isn't a shoo-in that Norway walks away with the most golds and total medals, it will take some of their top performers to slip up, while the USA goes near-perfect with its contending athletes.

The four top countries coming into Milan are Norway, the USA, Germany, and Canada. Home country Italy, along with fellow Nordic side Sweden, is also expected to make noise on the leaderboards throughout the two weeks the Games are active.

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